ENVIRONMENT
You may feel the heat from a weaker monsoon this year
The India Meteorological Department expects a weaker monsoon in 2026, with below-normal rainfall predicted.
The main reason is El Niño, which brings hotter, drier weather. It may develop after June, right when the monsoon peaks.
There's a silver lining. The Indian Ocean Dipole, in which sea surface temperature fluctuates, may turn positive towards end of the monsoon and boost rainfall.
What's in it for you?
- •WATER STRESS: A weaker monsoon affects water supply, irrigation, and hydropower. El Nino has led to drought conditions in the past.
- •FOOD INFLATION COULD RISE: Food prices are the most immediate concern. Weak rainfall during kharif sowing season hurts crops like rice, pulses, oilseeds, and sugarcane. This may reflect in higher prices.
- •WAIT FOR MORE IMD UPDATES: The second half of the monsoon could compensate for a weak start. The next IMD update — typically in late May or early June — will be the one to watch.
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